Here it is, my 2026 NFL Over-Under sheet. This is compiled using the data from Bet MGM as listed on 9/7/26. I went through and made the picks in about 15 minutes based on knowledge gained mostly listening to podcasts or looking at the occasional article – no fancy analytics needed. I may edit for any spelling issues or report to get onto one screen instead of having to click, but here they are:
| Team | Win Total | My Pick | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 3.5 | Over | Solid receiving corp, talent and depth at rb and a qb upgrade – easily an over |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7.5 | Under | The NFC South is weak but they will still manage to lose plenty of games |
| Baltimore Ravens | 11.5 | Under | Plenty of talent, although it is aging. This one is tough but the win total is just one too high. |
| Buffalo Bills | 10.5 | Under | Tough to go against Josh, but their schedule is loaded with tough teams; coud easily start the season 1-4. |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.5 | Over | Jonathan Brooks should bring some more juice to an already solid run game; a little improvement from Bryce will make a huge impact |
| Chicago Bears | 9.5 | Under | Amazing offensive talent but lacks defense and in a tough division – will regress this year |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 9.5 | Over | This is the year that health is on their side |
| Cleveland Browns | 5.5 | Under | QB play will continue to hold them back |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9.5 | Over | Jerry and company will finally make a deep playoff run once again – oozing with talent. |
| Denver Broncos | 9.5 | Over | Practically made the Super Bowl last year with their backup qb – will build on that success this season. |
| Detroit Lions | 10.5 | Over | Gibbs is the best RB in the game, but lack of depth makes this a shaky pick |
| Green Bay Packers | 9.5 | Under | Bad vibes from the Josh Jacobs situation and lack of star talent on offense |
| Houston Texans | 9.5 | Over | Stroud won’t hold this team back this year – expecting a bigger year to pair with this stout defense |
| Indianapolis Colts | 7.5 | Over | A qb returing from an ACL injury is concerning, but Taylor was electric last year so things look good |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 9.5 | Under | Etienne is a big loss; not expecting the same magical season from Trevor Lawrence |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 10.5 | Under | K-Walk is a great pickup, but too many losses on defense and Kelce is practically retired |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 5.5 | Over | Kirk Coursins will surprise – not going to see Mendoza as early as people think, if at all |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 10.5 | Over | This team is built to win, and now |
| Los Angeles Rams | 11.5 | Over | Defense alone should win them plenty of games and they have a solid run game, but too old at key positions so they aren’t winning the title |
| Miami Dolphins | 4.5 | Under | Unproven quarterback with not much talent outside of RB – expect a lot of stacked boxes and low scoring games |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8.5 | Over | Liking how Kyler fits in with this team |
| New England Patriots | 10.5 | Under | Overachieved last year – will regress when playing a tougher schedule |
| New Orleans Saints | 7.5 | Over | Etienne gives them new options, Shough is underrated, and a solid receiving group even with Jordyn Tyson starting on IR |
| New York Giants | 7.5 | Over | A new head coach, return from Malik Nabers, and addition of Brian Burns on defense will bring good things even if the division is tough |
| New York Jets | 5.5 | Over | Geno Smith brings stability, despite the interceptions. This is finally the year they make a playoff run |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 10.5 | Over | Loss of AJ Brown mitigated by a stacked roster |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.5 | Under | Good defense, but too unexciting on offense |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10.5 | Under | Not going to get another McCaffrey season like last; shaky WR depth |
| Seattle Seahawks | 10.5 | Over | Rams getting all the hype – this team won’t mind |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8.5 | Under | Baker contract situation a distraction; a lot riding on Egbuka with the departure of Mike Evans. |
| Tennessee Titans | 6.5 | Under | Offensive talent looks decent on paper and they should take a step forward, but 6 wins is more likely. |
| Washington Commanders | 7.5 | Over | Should be more exciting on offense; a healthier Jayden Daniels will lead to more wins even in a tough NFC East. |